Trump and Xi Set for High-Stakes Beijing Summit on Trade, Tech, and Regional Conflicts

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Beijing this week for a two-day summit expected to cover global trade, artificial intelligence, Taiwan, and tensions in the Middle East.

According to White House spokesperson Anna Kelly, Trump will attend a state banquet on Thursday evening, followed by a tea and working lunch with Xi on Friday before departing. The visit comes after the leaders’ last meeting in October in South Korea, where they agreed to pause an escalating trade war that included U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and Chinese threats to restrict rare earth supplies.

Key topics and expert outlook

The discussions are anticipated to focus on four main areas: trade, Taiwan, Iran, and broader technology issues including AI. Chris McGuire, senior fellow for China at the Council on Foreign Relations, said significant breakthroughs are unlikely, particularly on AI safety. He noted that prior U.S.-China dialogues under the Biden administration on AI risks, such as preventing AI-enabled biological weapons, saw limited cooperation, with Chinese counterparts primarily raising complaints about export controls.

On trade, McGuire highlighted a fundamental mismatch: China seeks advanced technologies like semiconductors from the U.S., while the U.S. has national security concerns over Chinese exports such as electric vehicles and batteries. He pointed to ideas promoted by Ambassador Greer for a “board of trade” focused on non-sensitive goods as a potential area for agreement, though its impact on overall trade volumes remains uncertain.

Middle East and leverage

With rising tensions involving Iran and disruptions in key maritime chokepoints vital to Asian economies, McGuire suggested the U.S. holds significant leverage through financial sanctions and technology controls. He noted that while China dominates rare earths, the U.S. has not fully utilized its advantages in finance and technology sectors. Threats of expanded sanctions on entities supporting Iran could influence Chinese behavior, though such moves would be escalatory and the administration has so far shown reluctance.

Both sides currently appear invested in maintaining a managed truce. The U.S. has paused new technology export restrictions—China’s top priority—while China has not fully imposed broad rare earth restrictions, though compliance questions persist. McGuire assessed that this delicate balance is likely to continue following the summit.

Taiwan remains central

Taiwan is expected to be a particularly sensitive issue. McGuire described it as the top priority for China and a matter of existential importance to Taiwan. Beijing is pushing for shifts in U.S. language, such as moving from not supporting Taiwanese independence to explicitly opposing it—a subtle change with major implications. He expressed doubt the U.S. would make such an adjustment, emphasizing the need for unambiguous U.S. support for Taiwan to deter potential conflict, protect alliances, and safeguard semiconductor supplies critical for global AI.

Large U.S. defense packages for Taiwan have been announced, though delivery and approval questions remain. McGuire warned that China would closely scrutinize any wording or policy signals for opportunities to drive wedges.

Business leaders and tech policy

The inclusion of business leaders, potentially including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, is under consideration. McGuire noted that while summit optics matter, policy decisions on technology sales will be decisive. The administration has signaled openness to selling some AI chips to China, reversing prior restrictions, a move facing bipartisan pushback in Congress over national security risks. Nvidia chips are central to the global AI race and in high demand.

McGuire cautioned that the current truce has allowed China to work around existing U.S. export controls and benefit from relaxed restrictions, urging the administration to evolve controls on advanced technologies even while preserving the truce and avoiding major rare earth disruptions. Treasury official Scott Bessent, who is traveling to Japan, South Korea, and then Beijing ahead of the summit, emphasized that “economic security is national security” in alignment with the America First agenda.

The summit outcomes are expected to shape U.S.-China relations across economic, technological, and security domains in the coming period.