Priebus and Zakheim: China Playing Firefighter While Funding Arson

Reince Priebus and Roger Zakheim analyzed how the Trump administration’s foreign policy has placed China in a difficult position amid ongoing Middle East tensions, particularly regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Priebus recounted a notable 2017 incident at Mar-a-Lago during a dinner between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Partway through the meal, Trump briefly left the table, ordered the launch of 58 Tomahawk missiles targeting Syria, and returned to inform Xi of the action before casually asking about the chocolate cake. Priebus described Trump as “a force of nature” not intimidated by high-stakes diplomacy. He noted that the strike advanced U.S. interests and that Assad was later removed from power, affecting Chinese and Russian interests in Syria.

The discussion highlighted skepticism about China’s ability or willingness to significantly aid in resolving the Iran situation. Priebus pointed out that China imports nearly half its oil through the Strait of Hormuz and is economically damaged by disruptions there, yet questioned what leverage Beijing has over a “decimated” Iran with weakened leadership. “China’s trying to play firefighter while funding the arsonist at the same time,” Priebus said. He added that China wants the strait reopened but does not want to see a major U.S. victory that would increase American dominance in the region, leaving Beijing “handcuffed.”

Roger Zakheim, director of the Ronald Reagan Institute, agreed that China’s strategy has backfired. He stated that China had recruited Iran as part of an “axis of aggressors” to distract the United States, alongside Russia and Venezuela, but these partners are now weaker than when Trump took office in January 2025. “What Xi was hoping Iran would be an asset, it’s a liability for the PRC right now,” Zakheim said, noting this gives Trump significant leverage ahead of his meeting with Xi in Beijing. He emphasized that President Trump seeks stability with China while recognizing the long-term strategic competition.

Both analysts downplayed expectations that China would solve the Iran issue for the U.S. Priebus stressed that the matter is primarily an American and Israeli effort, with the U.S. already “90%, 95% done,” and further actions possibly forthcoming. He dismissed media speculation about China providing an easy path forward, noting Iran’s admission of possessing nuclear material capable of making weapons-grade bombs. Any deal, he said, would require meaningful nuclear concessions, something previous administrations failed to secure.

On broader regional and global implications, Zakheim argued that U.S. actions in the Middle East have enhanced America’s ability to deter threats elsewhere, including keeping Taiwan free. Priebus expressed confidence that China would not risk military action over Taiwan, citing U.S. military strength and control over key waterways like the Strait of Malacca. Both viewed the U.S. and its allies as being in a significantly stronger position relative to China, which is essentially an observer watching the alignment of anti-Western actors (Russia, China, Iran) weaken.

Priebus concluded that China is in a desperate spot and will have to carefully choose its approach with Trump, who is unlikely to accept a bad deal. The analysts agreed the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting will be critical in determining Beijing’s path.