Keane: Iran Deploying Stall Tactics as Trump Administration Weighs Next Steps on Nuclear Deal and Regime Pressure

Retired Gen. Jack Keane, a senior strategic analyst, stated that Iran is employing familiar stall tactics in negotiations with the Trump administration, more than six weeks into a ceasefire originally intended to last only two weeks.

According to Keane, the ceasefire was meant to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a deadline that has not been met. He noted that while multiple potential deals have been explored, none acceptable to President Donald Trump have materialized. Keane assessed that Iran is not serious about reaching an agreement but is instead focused on prolonging talks in hopes of increasing political and economic pressure on the U.S. president, particularly as midterm elections approach and oil prices fluctuate.

“Their strategy has nothing to do with making a deal,” Keane said. He added that Iran prefers the U.S. to step back from combat operations, effectively allowing the regime to remain in charge. Even if a deal were reached meeting U.S. objectives, Keane warned it would likely involve unfreezing assets and easing sanctions, enabling the regime’s recovery and requiring the U.S. to finance aspects of that recovery over years—contrary to the original intent.

Keane recalled that the initial U.S. objective was to weaken the Iranian regime militarily and economically, reducing its capacity as a regional predator through its ballistic missile program, nuclear ambitions, and support for proxy forces. The goal, he said, was to place the regime on a pathway to potential collapse by making it vulnerable to internal resistance, without directly changing the government. A deal that sustains the regime would undermine that aim and represent a setback for the Iranian people, he argued.

Keane indicated that the administration has gathered significant additional intelligence over the six-week period on targets, personnel, and capabilities. He suggested that any resumption of combat operations would be “devastatingly more significant” than previous strikes due to this enhanced intelligence. He expressed confidence that U.S. and allied forces, including under Admiral Bradley, could effectively defend oil and gas infrastructure against potential Iranian retaliation, similar to support provided to Israel.

On recent Iranian threats to strike U.S. interests beyond the region—including possible terrorism—Keane described them as typical bluster. “They exaggerate their capabilities, they threaten and cajole,” he said, noting Iran’s currently limited abilities. He confirmed that U.S. defenses, the FBI, counterintelligence networks, embassies, and bases remain on high alert.

Keane viewed a return to stronger action as “inevitable,” describing President Trump as a “backstop” who will not accept a bad deal. He urged completing the mission to reduce oil price pressures and political strain, while acknowledging economic and political considerations.

In a separate portion of the discussion, Keane addressed the situation in Cuba following a U.S. Department of Justice indictment against former leader Raul Castro. He noted no U.S. military action is anticipated but highlighted ongoing economic pressure through measures that have cut off Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba, aiming to create internal fractures in the government. Keane suggested this could lead to opportunities for a transition toward a government elected by the Cuban people, providing significant relief and representing a major positive development for Cuban-Americans and the region. He contrasted this with the limited direct military focus on Cuba, centered primarily on the Guantanamo Bay base.

Keane emphasized the broader U.S. whole-of-government approach in the Western Hemisphere, including successes with Venezuela, and expressed optimism about potential long-term democratic transitions in Cuba and impacts on other actors like Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega.