Trump Faces a ‘Declining China’ as Taiwan Risks Loom, Analysts Say

Analysts discussing U.S.-China tensions and global security argued that China’s economic slowdown, demographic crisis and reliance on global energy routes are weakening Beijing’s position even as concerns over Taiwan and regional instability persist.

Speaking during a televised discussion, Marc Thiessen said Chinese President Xi Jinping is confronting a narrowing strategic window as China’s long-term economic outlook deteriorates.

Thiessen argued that recent conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, have demonstrated the effectiveness of modern naval blockades and drone warfare. He pointed to Ukrainian sea drone attacks against Russia’s Black Sea fleet as evidence that an amphibious assault on Taiwan would face major obstacles if backed by the United States.

He also said the United States has shown it can disrupt shipping chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and suggested a similar strategy could threaten China’s energy imports through the Strait of Malacca, where a large share of Beijing’s oil supply passes.

According to Thiessen, Washington’s challenge is no longer managing the rise of China, but rather managing what he described as China’s decline. He cited China’s low birthrate — which he said has fallen below replacement levels following decades of the one-child policy — as a major structural problem that could leave the country with an aging population and a shrinking workforce.

“Declining powers are dangerous,” Thiessen warned, arguing that Beijing may become more aggressive as its economic and demographic pressures intensify.

Former Army Special Operations intelligence analyst Brett Velicovich echoed concerns about China’s economic vulnerabilities. He said the broader geopolitical struggle extends beyond trade disputes and centers on control of global economic and energy networks.

Velicovich said China depends heavily on stable maritime shipping routes and ultimately relies on U.S. naval strength to keep global commerce functioning, despite maintaining ties with Iran. He argued Beijing wants to avoid a wider Middle East conflict that could send oil prices soaring and disrupt Chinese trade.

He also noted that both Washington and Beijing reportedly agree that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon, saying those shared interests reflect China’s dependence on stable global markets.

The discussion also focused on economic comparisons between the United States and China. Commentators argued that China’s growth has slowed significantly from previous decades, with its property sector struggling and per-capita income remaining far below U.S. levels.

Thiessen said China still possesses leverage through its dominance in rare earth minerals and critical supply chains. He noted that President Donald Trump has sought alternative mineral partnerships with countries including Australia and Ukraine in an effort to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese supplies.

The conversation later turned to the war in Ukraine, where Velicovich said Russia appears to be under increasing pressure despite early predictions that Moscow would quickly seize Kyiv.

Velicovich, who said he has spent extensive time in Ukraine during the conflict, argued that Russian forces have suffered heavy drone-related losses and have failed to make decisive territorial gains. He suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin may now be more willing to negotiate because of mounting military and domestic pressures.

He described the war as a “David versus Goliath” struggle in which Ukrainian forces have managed to resist a much larger military power despite significant territorial losses.