Starmer’s Survival Depends on Improvement, Former Labour Communications Chief Warns After Brutal Local Election Losses

Britain’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is fighting for his political future after Labour suffered hundreds of council seat losses across England, fell behind Plaid Cymru in Wales, and watched Reform UK surge in Scotland, Wales, and England, according to a former senior Labour insider.

Tom Baldwin, former Labour Head of Communications and author of Keir Starmer: The Biography, said in an interview that while the Prime Minister has gained some breathing space, his survival hinges on tangible improvement.

“Keir Starmer definitely has to improve if he’s going to stay until the next election,” Baldwin said. “I don’t think that’s certain, nor do I think it’s certain that he will go.”

Baldwin noted that polling shows the five most unpopular prime ministers in British history are, in ascending order, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and now Starmer. He attributed this trend to “the state of the nation rather than just the performance of those individual prime ministers,” describing a “hair-trigger anger and outrage over everything” that makes governing exceptionally difficult.

According to Baldwin, Labour is losing votes “in five different ways to five different parties” — including the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales — not solely to the populist right. “You can’t really have a coherent story out of last night except that Labour needs to do better,” he said.

When asked about the Prime Minister’s political identity, Baldwin observed that Starmer’s character has become more obscured by government. “This essentially very decent man who disdains a lot of the nasty sausage-making style of politics… has now been defined by it,” he said. “The last 22 months have all been about this advisor or that advisor… It hasn’t been nearly enough about the very real problems facing Britain and the world.”

Baldwin dismissed immediate leadership speculation, citing the absence of an obvious successor. He noted that a Labour leadership contest now would be “irresponsible” given global instability, including two ongoing wars and potential market disruption. “They’ve got a 165-seat working majority in the House of Commons. What they need to do is get on and govern, stop squabbling, stop talking about themselves.”

Regarding potential successors, Baldwin said Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is “a candidate but he’s currently unavailable because he’s not an MP,” adding that Burnham’s mayoral term ends in 12 to 18 months, at which point his return to parliament “makes everything much more interesting.”

Baldwin identified Labour’s biggest mistake as becoming “caught up in a kind of politics which is of interest really to about 500 people in Westminster” — focused on advisers, betting procedures, and appointments — while ordinary Britons feel excluded. “One of the reasons why people feel alienated from politics… is that kind of conversation about politics which excludes them.”

On Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, Baldwin said, “Nigel Farage is deeply unpopular in this country. I think he’s the second most unpopular leader after Keir Starmer.” He noted that Farage has not faced proper scrutiny, citing an undisclosed £5 million donation from a non-domicile Bitcoin billionaire in Thailand. “If that had happened to a Labour leader, it would have been front page news for weeks.”

Baldwin warned that Britain’s first-past-the-post system could allow Farage to become prime minister on just 23-25% of the vote, which he called “a disaster for Britain.” He added that Reform has already shown chaos in councils such as Staffordshire.

Starmer is scheduled to deliver a major speech on Monday expected to address Britain’s relationship with Europe and set out a forward agenda for the next 12 to 18 months. “He is slightly on notice,” Baldwin said. “A condition of his survival is improvement.”