Iran Does Not Want US to Restart Airstrikes, Expert Says

Former CIA station chief warns that Tehran will likely offer counterproposal in nuclear talks, as military pressure and oil politics loom large

As diplomatic efforts continue amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, Iran remains deeply resistant to one particular United States action: the restart of American airstrikes, according to a former intelligence official.

Dan Hoffman, a Fox News contributor and former CIA station chief, said that while Iran is known for playing hardball in negotiations, the regime has a clear incentive to engage.

“Those are the big questions that we’re asking,” Hoffman said. “I think Iran will come back with a proposal, a counterproposal, because they don’t want the United States to restart airstrikes that have been so damaging to their military infrastructure.”

Hoffman expressed skepticism that any initial Iranian offer would represent a final deal. “I very much doubt whatever they send us will be the last iteration of this peace negotiation of a deal,” he said. “But it may be a step — albeit a small one — and the Trump administration will need to determine, based on what Iran does and the intelligence reporting, whether we should proceed with further negotiations or dial up the military pressure, keep up the blockade, and induce a better response from the Iranians.”

Iran’s Oil Gambit and US Domestic Politics

Hoffman also addressed Iran’s broader strategy, noting that Tehran had been counting on the global economic damage that closing the Strait of Hormuz would cause. “They wanted to offset the benefits to the United States of the blockade, which is pressuring Iran,” he said. “They’re doing that not only to influence our allies in the region and beyond, but I also think they want to influence U.S. domestic politics.”

He pointed to the approaching midterm elections, with both parties discussing affordability and oil prices. “Iran wanted to get into the game and seek to influence U.S. foreign policy by playing with our domestic discourse on the economy,” Hoffman said.

Regarding the regime’s staying power under sustained pressure, Hoffman noted that estimates vary but warned of the regime’s willingness to inflict pain on its own citizens. “Those who I spoke with said Iran could last a month or two, maybe even three months,” he said. “There’s a super-high threshold for pain when it comes to their own citizens. They do not care. The IRGC and the paramilitary force will take the weapons out and shoot their own population.”

China’s Complicated Role

Hoffman also highlighted China’s dual position in the crisis. While Beijing has reduced its oil imports from Iran — a cut so significant it equals Japan’s total consumption and has helped keep global oil prices in check — China continues to supply Iran with drone factories and engines that power those drones.

“I think this is part of the overall U.S. bilateral relationship with China,” Hoffman said. “Ninety percent of Iran’s oil exports were going to China. There’s a lot to get out. China would like to reduce or eliminate altogether U.S. influence in the Middle East. Iran is their ally, and we have to take that into account as the president goes to Beijing and goes into painstaking negotiations on issues including trade, arms control, AI — a host of issues. This will be an incredibly important summit.”