‘Trust and Verify’: Expert Warns Against Blind Faith in China Trade Reset

Steve Yates, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a China and national security expert, has called for a measured approach to United States negotiations with China, emphasizing the principle of reciprocity while stressing the need to “trust and verify” any commitments made by Beijing.

Yates was discussing President Trump’s strategy of leveraging American economic strength by bringing a large delegation of U.S. CEOs to the summit with China. He described the move as part of a broader effort to reset U.S. policy away from the World Trade Organization (WTO) framework, which he said failed as an experiment, particularly after China’s accession that effectively ended a phase of globalism. Yates characterized Trump as America’s first post-globalist president.

“The core point of China open up [is] important for people to take that in, because we’ve been told for a couple generations that China was already open and that of course is not true,” Yates said. “There is not reciprocity or balance or fairness. China has much more access to the United States than Americans do to China.”

He noted that while the principle of greater openness is a good starting point, national security considerations would likely prevent the U.S. from selling its most advanced technology into China, as that could harm American supply chains.

Yates highlighted significant U.S. leverage in the talks. The combined market capitalization of top U.S. companies stands at approximately $30 trillion, compared to $1.2 trillion for Chinese firms. He also pointed to China’s vulnerabilities, including a $3 trillion bad debt overhang stemming from the real estate sector that could turn economic challenges into a full recession.

On what can realistically be achieved, Yates advised the president to prioritize transactional and tactical outcomes that can be verified, rather than expecting deep structural or strategic shifts. “When you’re talking about structural systemic strategic things, that’s harder,” he said, citing China’s likely preference for maintaining the status quo with Iran — a major oil supplier and state sponsor of terrorism — as an example.

He expressed optimism on narrower economic gains, such as allowing more American products into the Chinese market. However, he was skeptical about broader openings in sensitive areas. “Getting industries like social media companies access in a country that is alien to First Amendment freedoms of speech [is] not likely,” Yates said.

The comments underscore a pragmatic view of U.S.-China relations: pursuing fairer trade and limited cooperation where possible, while remaining cautious about Beijing’s long-term strategic intentions.