Credit Card Spending Surge Signals Consumer Stress, Not Strength, JPMorgan Economist Warns

Contrary to White House official’s optimistic take, rising debt amid high energy prices points to mounting household pressure, Michael Feroli says.

As Americans increasingly turn to credit cards to cover everyday expenses, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli has offered a cautionary assessment: the trend reflects financial strain, not resilience.

“The longer we go on with high energy prices, the more stress a consumer will come under,” Feroli said in a recent interview. He was responding to recent remarks by White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who suggested on Fox Business that surging credit card debt is a positive sign for employment. Hassett had said, “Credit card spending is through the roof. They’re spending more on gasoline, but they’re spending more on everything else, too,” intimating that this is a good thing.

Feroli disagreed directly. “No,” he said. “The more we would be worried about how that would feed back into the labor market.”

Drawing on JPMorgan’s vast credit card data, Feroli noted that in April, nominal spending at gasoline stations remained high, but consumers are buying fewer gallons—the increase is purely due to higher per-gallon prices. Outside of gas stations, spending appears to be slowing relative to March, which was the first full month of the conflict. Consumers held up well in March partly by drawing down savings rates, but April “is looking like you’re starting to see a little bit slower spending, maybe a little bit more signs of stress there.”

Feroli acknowledged that the labor market remains solid, with the April jobs report showing 115,000 jobs created—the second consecutive month of triple-digit gains. “Over most of 2025, we saw the unemployment rate move higher,” he said, but over the last three to six months, “that sense of downside risk is not as apparent. Most of us are feeling a little more comfortable that we’re in a stable equilibrium.”

However, he warned that if consumers cut back spending, “employers are going to cut back their hiring.” Asked about the war’s duration, Feroli said he has little confidence in predicting an end, but even if it ends soon, energy prices—particularly retail gasoline—will take months to return to February levels, likely not until the fourth quarter.

Regarding the AI sector’s boost to the economy, Feroli noted it has helped “sail past this oil price hike without too much problems so far,” with data center construction creating roughly 250,000 jobs. Still, he emphasized that many chips are imported, with value added occurring in Taiwan or Korea.

Feroli pointed to two key indicators to watch: Thursday’s retail sales report for April and the weekly jobless claims number, which will show whether employers are continuing to hold back on layoffs.