Iran Nuclear Deal and Economic Collapse: Experts Evaluate the New US-Iran Agreement

WASHINGTON — As details surrounding the proposed Iran nuclear deal emerge, national security analysts are emphasizing the regime’s profound economic collapse and degraded military power, arguing the current diplomatic framework differs vastly from the Obama-era JCPOA to prevent a nuclear weapon.

During a recent policy discussion, former Deputy National Security Adviser Victoria Coates and Ronald Reagan Institute Director Roger Zakheim assessed the current state of Tehran, noting that Iran has lost an estimated 80 percent or more of its military capabilities compared to just a year ago. Coates pointed out that the current arrangement is significantly worse for the Iranian regime than the JCPOA negotiated under Barack Obama. She highlighted stark GDP fluctuations: Iran’s GDP surged to nearly $500 billion annually following the JCPOA, plummeted to roughly $200 billion during the first Trump administration, rebounded to over $400 billion under Joe Biden, and is now rapidly declining again. According to Coates, recent military operations, including “Epic Fury,” have exponentially worsened the meltdown, leaving Iran unable to recover even by selling discounted oil to China or on the open market.

Addressing rumors of massive financial payouts, Vice President J.D. Vance clarified that not a single cent of American money—debunking floating figures of $300 billion or $24 billion—will go to Iran. Instead, the agreement relies on a firm, verifiable commitment from Tehran to never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon long-term. Coates added that regional powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have no incentive to financially rehabilitate the Iranian regime or fund a regional nuclear arms race. Instead, these Gulf states are focusing on trillions of dollars in investments within the United States, a trend underscored by recent meetings in Evian, France, between President Trump and leaders from the UAE and Qatar. Analysts noted that the U.S. currently leads globally in artificial intelligence, oil, energy, natural gas, and LNG, and is home to the world’s first trillionaire, whereas Iran currently lacks comparable leverage. Any potential reconstruction fund would be strictly contingent on Tehran completely altering its behavior, a condition that would effectively hasten the regime’s demise.

A major focal point of the discussion was Israel’s right to self-defense, particularly concerning threats from Hezbollah in Lebanon. Zakheim dismissed the notion that the United States would enforce an “Iranian veto” over Israeli military responses. This stance was echoed by U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, who authoritatively stated that Washington would never sign an agreement compromising Israel’s ability to defend itself. Coates shared that a senior Israeli official recently told her that the “worst day” with Trump is still vastly superior to the “best day” with either Biden or Obama. Coates, who is scheduled to travel to Israel on Friday for a conference, noted that the joint capabilities demonstrated by the U.S. and Israeli militaries have cemented a remarkably strong alliance.

Looking ahead, experts remain confident in America’s strategic deterrence. With the Fifth Fleet and CENTCOM maintaining a robust presence in the region, the U.S. retains the ability to strike Iranian targets anywhere and at any time, especially given the failure of Iranian-advertised Chinese and Russian defense systems. Zakheim concluded that the severe damage inflicted upon the regime ensures Iran will never return to its former status, describing the weakening of the government as a monumental accomplishment for Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and their allies. Ultimately, the consensus among the analysts is that the permanent diminishment of the regime’s power stands as a significant boon to humankind.