US Weighs New Strikes on Iran Amid Ongoing Ceasefire Talks

President Donald Trump stated Friday that Iran is “dying to make a deal” to end the war, while convening a meeting with his top national security team to discuss the path forward with Tehran. Reports indicate the United States is seriously considering launching new strikes against Iran if last-minute breakthroughs in negotiations fail to materialize.

A ceasefire between the two countries was established in mid-April. According to details shared by Professor Alon Burstein of The Israel-Palestine Report, Qatar is currently sending a team of mediators to Iran in coordination with the United States. The primary goal is to secure an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the US offering to lift sanctions and asset freezes in return.

Professor Burstein noted significant developments in the past 24 hours. Both U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Iranian state media outlets have acknowledged progress in talks, though neither side described the situation as finalized. Rubio stated that some obstacles have been overcome, while expressing caution that a deal is not yet complete. Iranian outlets Tasnim and ISNA offered mixed signals, with one reporting major breakthroughs in negotiations conducted in Pakistan and the other tempering expectations.

Saudi outlet Al Arabiya published what it described as a 10-point document under negotiation for a 30-day ceasefire, followed by broader talks. Key elements reportedly include:

• An immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire across all fronts, explicitly covering Lebanon, Yemen, and maritime areas beyond just the Strait of Hormuz.
• Mutual commitments not to target military, civilian, or economic infrastructure.
• Guarantees for freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman.
• Establishment of a joint mechanism to monitor implementation and resolve disputes — a format the Trump administration has used in other regional agreements.
• Negotiations on outstanding issues to begin within seven days.
• Gradual lifting of U.S. sanctions in exchange for Iran’s adherence to the agreement terms.

Professor Burstein emphasized that while the document was leaked and subsequently denied by Iranian state media, Al Arabiya’s past reporting on such details has often proven reliable. Notably, core issues such as Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and ballistic missile program are not addressed in the immediate framework, effectively serving as a reset to pre-war conditions while talks continue.

The professor contextualized reports of potential new U.S. strikes as part of a consistent negotiation pattern employed by the Trump administration. Similar reports of imminent military action have circulated nearly every weekend since the mid-April ceasefire, often accompanied by heightened alerts in the region. Burstein described this approach as a deliberate tactic: maintaining pressure by signaling readiness to resume strikes while pursuing diplomatic outcomes. He noted that the administration has previously used extended ceasefires and military buildups as leverage, sometimes resulting in actual operations.

President Trump has repeatedly claimed since early March that Iran is desperate to end the conflict. Professor Burstein assessed that while Iran seeks to rebuild its economy — currently experiencing severe hyperinflation — and restore normal civilian life, the regime remains stable with increased domestic rallying around the flag. Unlike the U.S. and Israel, which face electoral timelines, Iran does not face immediate domestic political pressure, giving it more flexibility in negotiations.

Additional tensions include a recent proposal in the Iranian parliament offering substantial cash rewards for the assassination of President Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, or U.S. Central Command leader Gen. Michael Kurilla. Secretary of State Rubio also addressed reports of Iran attempting to establish a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that no country should accept such measures.

Professor Burstein suggested the U.S. might ultimately tolerate some form of Iranian revenue generation through the strait — potentially as an informal alternative to direct reparations — though this would likely not be formalized in any agreement. Iran has dropped demands for explicit reparations in recent rounds, which the analyst viewed as potentially linked to back-channel understandings.

Negotiations remain fluid, with both sides continuing to balance diplomatic efforts against displays of strength.