Former Advisor Says Iran Bears Economic Burden as Trump Pursues Nuclear Deal

Former deputy national security advisor Victoria Coates stated that President Donald Trump maintains a confident position regarding Iran, asserting that the United States will achieve its objectives either through diplomatic agreement or military means. According to Coates, the administration’s core demands remain clear: Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon, and the Strait of Hormuz must reopen immediately.

Coates emphasized that economic pressure is significantly impacting Iran, noting the country has lost approximately 3 million jobs since the current pressure campaign began. She pointed to a sharp decline in Iranian oil exports, which have fallen from 2 million barrels per day to under 500,000 barrels per day under renewed sanctions. During the first Trump administration, she added, those exports had neared zero.

“The president knows the real burden is on the Iranians,” Coates said. “They’re the ones shedding jobs and can’t get their exports out. They’re the ones whose inflation is sky-high and their currency is valueless.”

Regarding the technical aspects of a potential nuclear agreement, Coates addressed the challenge of removing enriched uranium from Iran. While acknowledging the difficulty, she noted that intelligence assessments would determine whether the material poses a reconstitution threat. She highlighted that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner recently visited Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee—a facility with expertise in removing nuclear materials from nations like Libya and Kazakhstan. Coates described the Oak Ridge team as uniquely skilled professionals who are “both special operations soldiers and nuclear scientists,” adding that such capabilities make the task “totally doable,” though challenging.

Coates also referenced the role of economic measures led by Scott Bessent, including embargoes, asset seizures, and financial restrictions. She cited reports that Iranian troops are going unpaid, police presence is diminishing, and prices for key food staples have risen by 200%. Despite these pressures, she noted that past predictions of global oil shocks during earlier sanctions rounds did not materialize, due in part to increased U.S. energy production and cooperation with partners like Saudi Arabia.

On the topic of Cuba, Coates suggested that if diplomatic efforts led by Secretary Bessent and Secretary Rubio succeed, military action may not be necessary. She expressed hope that systematic political reform could be achieved peacefully, while noting that historical precedents show U.S. military action can sometimes make a decisive difference in such situations.

Coates concluded that the administration remains prepared to pursue a diplomatic resolution but has demonstrated readiness to take alternative paths if needed. “If they want to do it the easy way we can,” she said, “but we’ve shown them we can do it the hard way if that’s their choice.”