Donald Trump Claims ‘Total Control’ of Iran Strait of Hormuz Amid Naval Blockade Stalemate

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump recently declared that the United States maintains “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that an American naval blockade has effectively neutralized Iran’s military capabilities. However, geopolitical experts suggest the reality on the water remains a complex stalemate as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran stall.

Taking to Truth Social on Wednesday, President Donald Trump characterized the U.S. naval blockade as a “WALL OF STEEL,” claiming Iran has no navy, no air force, and that its remaining soldiers are unpaid. The president further alleged that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is “decimated and fleeing,” Iranian leadership is uncertain, and the country is suffering from 300% inflation.

Tufts University Professor Alon Burstein of the Israel-Palestine Report notes that while international organizations have not confirmed a 300% inflation rate, Iran’s economy is undeniably under immense strain. According to Burstein, the Iranian Rial has dropped 20% in value since the war began in February. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund recently projected that Iran’s economy will shrink by 5.6% to 6% this year—marking its worst economic performance since the 1988 war with Iraq.

Despite claims of absolute dominance, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a mutual siege. The United States established its own physical blockade in the Gulf of Oman back in April, utilizing active ships, radar, helicopters, and attack planes to halt traffic, while American forces continue patrolling the skies. Conversely, Iran lacks the naval capacity for a physical wall of ships but enforces its own blockade through asymmetric warfare. Iranian forces have laid underwater mines along the southern pass and utilize speedboats equipped with shoulder-mounted missiles to attack vessels in the northern pass.

This kinetic standoff is accompanied by a confusing diplomatic landscape. While the U.S. insists direct negotiations are ongoing, Iran denies this, stating it is only in talks with Oman, with rumors of a potential deal emerging before Saturday. Meanwhile, mediators including Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are attempting to de-escalate the conflict. Pakistan recently suggested that a June framework ceasefire could be extended by 60 to 90 days, a 60-day window that is set to run out on Monday.

Burstein points out that a 90-day ceasefire extension would be highly advantageous for the U.S. ahead of the midterms. A pause in the mutual siege would lower global gas prices and inject new life into the slowing American economy. However, the U.S. continues to threaten strikes on Iranian oil, energy, power facilities, and bridges, while intelligence suggests Iran is actively rebuilding its military for a prolonged war of attrition.

The maritime conflict is also threatening to spill over into a “two choke point war” involving the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While the Strait of Hormuz is critical for global energy—handling 20% of the world’s oil and 10% to 15% of its natural gas—the Bab el-Mandeb is vital for general global commerce, facilitating 10% to 12% of all maritime trade, including food and vehicles.

Tensions there escalated on Tuesday when Houthi forces fired missiles at a vessel, killing six people, including four crew members and two members of government-aligned national resistance forces. Though the Houthis are close allies of Iran, Burstein emphasizes they operate as their own entity. Following a 2014-2020 war with Saudi Arabia and a subsequent ceasefire, the Houthis reactivated in 2023. Notably, during the 12-day war in June 2025, the group remained largely inactive from late February through April, highlighting their independent political and diplomatic calculations. Currently, they are threatening ships bound for Saudi Arabia, signaling they could escalate the siege further if pushed.

In neighboring Gaza, diplomatic maneuvering is heavily influenced by internal politics as well. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has officially rejected a U.S. formula for Hamas disarmament. With Israeli general elections scheduled for October 27—the first since the October 7, 2023 attacks—Netanyahu is facing poor polling numbers and intense pressure to maintain a hardline stance.

Yet, according to Burstein, U.S. officials are looking past Netanyahu’s electoral rhetoric and focusing on actions on the ground. Despite public rejections of the U.S. roadmap, the Israeli military has reportedly halted assassinations and commenced excavations in eastern Rafah to develop a new base for the ISF.

As the geopolitical landscape continues to shift, experts like Burstein continue to monitor the brewing violence between settlers and Palestinians in the West Bank alongside these broader regional conflicts, providing ongoing analysis through the Israel-Palestine Report on YouTube and his personal website.