Mali’s Capital Faces Blockade as JNIM Militants Seize Northern Cities

A coordinated offensive by Al-Qaeda-linked militants and separatist rebels has plunged Mali into a deepening security crisis, with two northern cities captured, the defence minister killed, and an apparent attempt now underway to impose a complete blockade on the capital, Bamako.

Islamist group JNIM (Jamāʻat Nuṣrat al-Islām wal-Muslimīn), which is linked to Al-Qaeda, has been fighting alongside the separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), formerly known as the Tuareg separatist group. Over the past week, the alliance has seized control of Tessalit and Aguelhok – both strongholds of Tuareg separatists – and is pushing government forces out of northern regions.

According to Beverly Ochieng, a West Africa specialist and political risk analyst at Control Risks, which advises governments and companies on security risks, the situation remains fluid.

“There has been some progress in the northern region where there is more coordination between JNIM and the Tuareg separatists from the FLA,” Ochieng said from Dakar, Senegal’s capital. “As of this weekend, they had taken a few more bases.”

The offensive follows the collapse of a peace deal between the government and separatists in 2023-2024. Government forces, supported by Russian mercenaries, are fighting back in both northern and central regions, where some military bases have been contested.

Defence Minister Killed

The crisis has already claimed a high-profile casualty: Defence Minister Sadio Camara, nicknamed “Mr. Russia” for his role in bringing Russian mercenaries into the country. Camara was killed in the recent fighting. He had been considered the regime’s second-in-command and the key architect of the Russian partnership.

Ochieng noted that Camara initially brought in the Wagner Group, which operated with heavy-handed tactics and faced allegations of atrocities, including a suspected massacre of civilians in the central region of Moura – allegations the Malian government has consistently denied.

Following Wagner’s departure, the Africa Corps – more closely affiliated with the Russian government and described by Ochieng as more risk-averse – took over. Approximately 2,000 Russian personnel are currently present in Mali.

However, the analyst pointed to significant challenges: “In terms of their responsiveness, there’s a bit more time in terms of negotiating with them to go to the front line. It’s part of the reason things have picked up as they have comparatively in terms of militants being able to make massive incursions.”

Intelligence Gaps and Arrests

Amid the military’s struggle to maintain control, Ochieng revealed that some Malian soldiers have been arrested on suspicion of collaborating with JNIM.

“There are concerns that there may be some intelligence gaps within the Malian army which then enabled the attacks last Saturday to happen,” she said.

JNIM emerged in 2017 from the merger of four groups and remains active in Mali, neighbouring Burkina Faso, and Niger. The group is led by Iyad ag Ghaly, a Tuareg from the northern Kidal region, with a deputy leader from the central region. They rely heavily on communal strongholds for recruitment, tapping into grievances over government presence and promoting religious ideology.

The group has long called for Sharia law and has imposed its version of it coercively in areas where it has established control, particularly in central Mali.

Blockade of the Capital

Most alarmingly, JNIM is now attempting to impose a complete blockade on Bamako. While some routes remain accessible – particularly toward the airport and southern areas like Niono – travel from the western Kayes region has become difficult.

“JNIM said in its statement that people are allowed to leave the capital, but they’re not allowed to come back inside,” Ochieng said. “The point of this siege is to put pressure on people so that they can in turn put pressure on the government to leave power.”

Fuel shortages have already emerged. While nearly 800 fuel trucks entered the capital yesterday, Ochieng noted that this is insufficient compared to normal daily receipts, even before the blockade and an earlier fuel embargo.

Ochieng warned that JNIM may leverage open routes for closure to intensify pressure on the government.

Diminished Foreign Support

The security situation has deteriorated dramatically since the departure of international forces. Approximately three years ago, a combined force of French, UN, and US troops – numbering some 17,000 – supported the Malian government. Today, that presence has been replaced by roughly 2,000 Russian personnel.

The regional community has been hesitant to intervene, particularly after Mali and its neighbours left the regional bloc ECOWAS, which lacked counterinsurgency capacity in any case.

Mali has been under military rule since 2020. Regime leader Assimi Goïta reportedly disappeared from public view for several days following the defence minister’s death before visiting the Russian ambassador first – underscoring the importance of that alliance.