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WASHINGTON — The prospects for a renewed Iran nuclear deal have effectively vanished following a surge in Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) aggression, prompting national security experts to argue that it is time to implement maximum pressure on Tehran. As Iranian forces continue to destabilize the region, specialists emphasize that diplomatic efforts must be backed by severe economic and military consequences to force compliance.
According to recent security assessments, the IRGC has fired missiles and struck at least three tankers in the last 24 hours, with additional projectiles targeting regional bases, including a strike near Bahrain. In light of these escalations, the existing Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran is considered defunct.
Roger Zakheim, director at the Ronald Reagan Institute and co-founder of the Reagan National Defense Forum, declared the agreement “dead as December.” Zakheim noted that the core issue is no longer just the technical status of the MOU, but whether Iran intends to act like a responsible nation seeking any diplomatic arrangement. His answer, he stated, is a resounding no.
Aaron Cohen, an Israeli Special Operations veteran and founder of Gideon, echoed these sentiments, pointing out that since the ceasefire, Iran has maintained continuous aggression, exerted pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, and resisted transparency regarding its nuclear program. Cohen highlighted a critical flaw in the diplomatic approach: the Iranian officials engaging in negotiations are not the ones making the ultimate decisions. The diplomats seeking cash infusions are not the IRGC, which is actively firing on navigating tankers. Consequently, Cohen argued that the MOU holds no value if it fails to change Iran’s behavior, making it a complete waste of time.
Both experts advocate for a return to a maximum pressure campaign, combining economic and military leverage to bring Tehran back to the table. This aligns with recent moves by the Treasury Department, which announced the restoration of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, effective through August 21. Zakheim praised Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, describing him as the best wartime Treasury secretary since World War II for his application of economic theory to national security. While the August 21 deadline is near, Zakheim believes the administration is signaling that sterner actions are imminent to ensure Iran cannot have its cake and eat it too.
Furthermore, the administration is reportedly re-engaging in efforts such as Operation Economic Fury to cut off cash infusions and regain strategic uncertainty. Retired General Keith Kellogg has also publicly stated that it is time to resume military strikes, reflecting a growing consensus that diplomatic patience is wearing thin.
Despite the hawkish recommendations, President Trump has thus far favored a diplomatic route. The President recently convened with Joint Chiefs of Staff General Pain and Secretary Pete Hegseth to review military options but opted to continue diplomatic efforts for now. However, experts note that Trump’s willingness to impose crushing sanctions keeps adversaries off balance. Meanwhile, the administration has achieved a domestic economic milestone related to the initial diplomatic outreach, with national gas prices dropping under $4 a gallon.
Beyond the Middle East, the discussion shifted to NATO and Arctic security, specifically regarding Greenland. Zakheim affirmed that Greenland is critical to U.S. national security, drawing parallels to Cold War strategies and the rising influence of the People’s Republic of China. President Trump has reportedly brought the issue of Greenland control to recent NATO meetings. Zakheim explained that this unconventional tactic is designed to put allies on their heels and motivate them to take their security commitments seriously. By leveraging these discussions, the administration aims to strengthen the alliance against threats from Moscow without undermining the unity of the free world.