U.S. Prepared to Force Open Strait of Hormuz if Diplomacy Fails, Veteran Analyst Says

Following U.S. defensive strikes in southern Iran and a stern warning from Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the Strait of Hormuz “has to be open one way or the other,” military and economic analysts outline mounting pressure on Tehran and contingency plans to secure the critical waterway.

Jim Hanson, a U.S. Army Special Forces veteran and Middle East expert, stated that while prolonged tensions create political challenges domestically, the United States holds greater strategic endurance than Iran. “We are in a position where we can wait longer than they can,” Hanson said. He noted that the U.S.-led blockade has severely constrained Iran’s finances: “They have no money to pay their bad guys, no revenue to run their government.” With limited asymmetric capabilities remaining to threaten maritime traffic, Hanson assessed that Iranian leadership faces strong incentive to negotiate.

On the economic front, Kevin Hassett, Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, projected a sharp decline in global energy prices once the Strait reopens. “As soon as the Strait is open then energy prices are going to plummet like nothing you’ve ever seen before,” Hassett said, citing substantial idle oil capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Recent market data shows crude oil trading under $95 per barrel, alongside strong corporate earnings and equity market performance.

The Trump administration maintains a firm negotiating posture. Referencing the President’s “no dust, no dollar” stance, Hanson emphasized that no oil revenue or unfrozen funds would flow to Iran until core U.S. demands are met. “I don’t see a dollar of oil revenue flowing in there until the President gets what he wants,” he said.

Should diplomacy stall, Hanson confirmed the U.S. military stands ready to act. “In the end, a deal is going to be made and the Strait will open even if we have to force it open,” he stated. “The U.S. Navy can do that and it will be a fight, you know, difficult, dangerous, but we will get oil flowing through that.” He added that sustained defensive strikes could continue alongside naval operations to maintain pressure on Iranian forces.

Speculation about a potential interim agreement has circulated following a Wall Street Journal op-ed suggesting a preliminary framework: mutual de-escalation of blockades, possible U.S. financial incentives, and a 60-day window for talks on nuclear provisions and further sanctions relief. However, Iranian officials have denied providing assurances regarding the disposal of enriched uranium. Hanson expressed skepticism that the administration would ease economic pressure prematurely: “I certainly don’t think President Donald Trump will take his foot off of the economic gas pedal.”

Amid reports of currency depreciation, food inflation, and fuel shortages inside Iran, Hanson suggested humanitarian aid could offer a calibrated path forward. “There may be a way to go ahead and do some things that help the people of Iran that keep the regime from collapsing completely while we finish the deal,” he said, noting that an Iranian internet shutdown limits independent verification of conditions on the ground.

The administration’s domestic energy policy, described as “drill, baby, drill,” is credited with helping contain U.S. fuel costs by boosting supply alongside demand-side negotiations. As diplomatic and military options remain in play, officials stress that reopening the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments pass—remains a non-negotiable priority.